Rispondete ad una domanda facile facile: quali sono i paesi che soffrono di più con l'aumento delle materie prime (petrolio, acciaio, rame) ?
Soffrono di più i paesi con un'economia basata sui servizi, su aziende informatiche e farmaceutiche, o i paesi che hanno soprattutto aziende manifatturiere?
Quali tipologie di aziende hanno Cina e India? Cina e India sono paesi esportatori o importatori di materie prime? (ad esempio la Cina oggi ha grandi produzioni di acciaio, ceramica, e altri semilavorati ad alta intensità energetica e di materie prime di base, su cui non può comprimere i costi se non quelli del personale)
Credo sia sufficiente rispondere a queste semplicissime domande per capire che i problemi non sono tutti in USA ed Europa, e che nel medio (alcuni mesi) lungo termine (1 o più anni) anche l'Asia avrà grossi problemi economici. Se poi aggiungiamo che questi paesi non hanno un vero e proprio mercato interno, che basano la loro economia sull'export e che oggi il più grande importatore netto (gli USA) sta entrando in recessione e per di più lo fa con un $ in caduta libera che frenerà ulteriormente l'import........be' allora si comprende come tutto sia collegato e che difficilmente si potrà avere un'economia in salute mentre la locomotiva americana è in officina per un po' di manutenzione. Meditiamo e stiamo coperti......ci aspettano tempi molto turbolenti,
11 Comments:
A noi le materie prime costano poco... abbiamo la "fortuna" di avere l'euro "forte"... e pazienza se poi i manufatti non ce li compra piu' nessuno... mal che vada importiamo qualche milionata d'immigrati... delocalizziamo un po'... cosi' riduciamo i prezzi.
Ovviamente con una valuta di proprieta' e un tantino di oscillazione monetaria non dovremmo ne' preoccuparci dei subprime, ne' abbassare gli stipendi, e tutto questo con un costo delle materie prime incomparabilmente piu' basso. Ma il nazionalismo e' tabu... infatti Putin guadagna mentre noi continuiamo a pigliarlo nel bip.
Allegro che in Asia il tifone arrivera' entro 6 mesi, se non prima. E' la storia del battito d'ali della farfalla :-) In compenso quelli che hanno ancora un governo decente pianificano l'uscita soft dalla globalizzazione che alcuni analisti danno per defunta entro questo decennio. A noi, che invece un governo non l'abbiamo, tocchera' l'uscita hard... (vedi sopra). Piove sul bagnato, insomma.
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